Ignacio León, Doctorant à l'Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne

Le séminaire du jeudi 17 avril 2025 est animé par Ignacio León, Doctorant à l'Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne.

Ses domaines de recherches couvrent l'économie du travail, l'éducation, le crime et l'économétrie appliquée.

Résumé : This paper examines the causal effect of reduced school attendance on youth criminal activity in Ecuador. Using administrative data on arrests and incarceration, I exploit variation in high school dropout rates across cohorts and cantons during the COVID-19 pandemic within a difference-in-differences framework with continuous treatment. The findings show that pandemic-induced declines in school attendance significantly increased youth crime: incarceration rates rose by 20.8 percent among high school cohorts in cantons where dropout rates increased, relative to those where they did not. The effect is more pronounced in areas with greater exposure to organized crime, particularly following spillovers from Colombia after 2017. Notably, this spillover effect emerged only after 2020, suggesting that a pandemic-driven labor supply shock was a necessary condition for the demand shock from organized crime to raise youth criminality.

Le séminaire a lieu à 13h30 en salle 227.