Julien Daubanes, Maître de conférence, Technical University of Denmark

Jeudi 6 novembre 2025, nous accueillons Julien Daubanes, Maître de conférence à Technical University of Denmark.

Julien Daubanes travaille sur l'économie environnementale, l'étude de la manière dont les marchés énergétiques réagissent aux politiques climatiques, ainsi que les actions volontaires des entreprises, y compris la finance verte.
 

Titre de sa présentation : How Does the Cost of Financial Capital Affect Oil Production?
 

Résumé : In the past decade, a rapidly growing number of investors have committed to stop financing the production of carbon resources, thereby increasing the cost of capital for oil production projects. Yet no analytical framework currently captures how the cost of capital affects production from real resource exploitation projects, nor does a normative benchmark indicate the financial sacrifice by investors that would be consistent with climate objectives. To fill this gap, we combine economic modeling, empirical calibration, and numerical simulations. We develop a model of the oil market in which the industry's cost of financial capital--isolated from the cost of physical capital--affects drilling decisions and oil production. The model is calibrated using data covering all U.S. oil assets and used to simulate the dynamic competitive equilibrium under various counterfactual policy scenarios for the period 2000-2030, including carbon pricing and "green finance," modeled as an augmented cost of financial capital. Our results suggest that increasing the cost of capital by up to one percentage point is counterproductive, due to the short-termism it induces in the industry. Green finance becomes effective at deterring oil production only over longer horizons or under larger capital penalties. To replicate the effect of carbon pricing, investors would need to forego financial returns of about 20%.
 

Le séminaire a lieu à 11 heures en salle 227.