Mouez Fodha, Professeur d'économie à l'Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne et Paris School of Economics

Le séminaire du jeudi 10 avril 2025 est animé par Mouez Fodha, Professeur à l'Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics et titulaire de la Chaire Réussir la transition énergétique.
Ses travaux portent sur l’économie de l’environnement et des ressources naturelles, les politiques fiscales environnementales et la redistribution, ainsi que la croissance durable.

Titre de sa présentation : Transition risks and sovereign debt cost: a premium on fossil resources?

Résumé : Phasing out fossil fuels will expose fossil fuel-rich countries to significant stranded assets, potentially undermining their credibility in financial markets. This paper examines the impact of transition risks associated with the shift to a low-carbon economy on the cost of sovereign debt. Using two unbalanced panel datasets covering a total of 125 countries over the period 1995-2019, we estimate extended models of the macroeconomic determinants of both short- and long-term sovereign debt costs. These models incorporate key indicators of countries’ exposure to low-carbon transition risks, including fossil resource abundance, the carbon intensity of GDP, and the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption. Our results suggest that countries with abundant fossil resources and those with a higher share of renewable energy in their energy mix benefit from lower borrowing costs. Conversely, countries with a more carbon-intensive GDP face higher interest rates on public debt. These findings indicate that financial markets reward fossil resource endowments while penalizing their use, thereby supporting the low-carbon transition.

Le séminaire a lieu à 13h30 en salle 227.